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PICTURE OF ZAMBIA’S CONTEXT AT START OF 2003

Zambia is a poor country – ranked 153 out of 173 on the 2002 UNDP Human Development Index, with an estimated 80% of our people living below the poverty line.  But it is a potentially rich country, with peace, a dedicated citizenry and strong civil society, a democratic government striving to overcome inherited problems and fight corruption, and good mineral and agricultural resources. How to match the potential with the poverty offers many challenges at the start of 2003.

Some of these challenges are a consequence of long-standing problems coupled with unexpected set backs, such as the pull out in January 2002 of Anglo-American Corporation from the recently privatised mining sector and the adverse weather experienced in the 2001-2002 agricultural season.  The challenges also arise from the fact that most of the country’s economic reform programmes -- imposed by external forces such as the World Bank and IMF -- have not delivered as anticipated.  Zambia continues to have a very high external debt – close to US$ 7 billion.  For a country of about 10 million people, that is a per capita debt of US$ 700 – twice the per capita GDP.

Critical in the whole mix of problems Zambia is facing has been the severe hunger problem experienced in some parts of Zambia that led to immense pressure on the country’s food requirements in the year 2002 and into 2003.  A drought in 2002 crippled food production, putting at risk nearly two million people by the end of the year. 

Unfortunately, 2003 has begun with a repeat of drought conditions, raising serious concern about food security for this year.  The food situation has been complicated by the clear rejection, on health and environmental safety grounds, of GMO maize offered by the USA government and the World Food Programme.

The non-productivity of the economy – especially in the mining and manufacturing sectors – has consequences in several important areas such as:  

• Loss in the value of the kwacha, with depreciation from 3500 kwacha to the US dollar at the start of 2002 to 5000 kwacha to the dollar at the end of 2002

• Failure to meet the macro-economic targets set in the 2002 government Budget (e.g., 13 percent end-year inflation, 4.3 percent growth rate, etc.) – inflation was over 20% at the year’s end 

• Ever rising cost of living as shown by the JCTR monthly Basic Needs Basket (up from K829,250 in January to K887,550 in December), with an increasing deterioration in social conditions of the people. 

Politically, the country continues to face a situation of serious doubt that has bad economic consequences.  The presidential and parliamentary elections of December 2001 are still being petitioned in major court cases, with the outcome still very uncertain.  Revelations of deep-seated corruption in the previous administration have led to dismissals and resignations of top officials and the arrest and confiscation of property of many key figures. The immunity of the former president has been lifted by act of Parliament and he faces imminent prosecution for plunder of national resources.  Such a political climate does hinder the attraction of needed foreign investment. 

Although for the first time in history there is a large number of opposition members in Parliament, the opposition parties are badly split and not offering serious alternatives.  Moreover, many opposition politicians are tending to jump from their party to the ruling party, thus weakening further the democratic process.

To return to the opening paragraph, it is important to emphasise that even with all its serious problems, Zambia still has great potential to develop.  Key to the development process is an organised and intelligent civil society and a strong and socially motivated church.  The three major church bodies cooperate very well on social issues and play an important role in promoting justice issues in politics and the economy.

[Notes by Pete Henriot, S.J., Director, Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection, Lusaka, Zambia. 15-01-03]