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Dear
JCTR Bulletin Readers:
Are economic indicators and other statistical indicators pure myth and just rituals? Now, this is a very harsh question for students of statistics, economics, demography and experts in these fields. Actually, they consider such indicators as scientific with tools for measuring them. In recent years, Zambia has seen improved economic indicators that have been premise for affirming that development is happening in Zambia. Poverty levels are claimed to have reduced from 68.1% in 1996 to 59.3% in 2006 and extreme poverty declined from 44.5% in 1996 to 36.5% in 2006. GDP growth is on the increase over years averaging about 6% (just close to 7% where it is believed that such economic growth can bring about good development). Inflation rates have decreased to single digits hitting a low 9.9% in December 2009. Enrolment rates in schools have increased. Maternal mortality and infant mortality rates have decreased. HIV prevalence rates have decreased. So what is the problem? Zambia is on the right track to development. Zambia is growing. Zambia is improving.
This is precisely what makes economic indicators and statistical indicators just rituals. Should we imagine a dictatorial nation where a head of state declares that, come what may, he or she wants certain economic statistics, are we to believe that such are of any help to us? Actually, this has happened in African democracies in the recent past where nations have insisted on certain statistics that do not reflect reality. This was clearly seen in Zimbabwe’s inflation rates and exchange rates. Even in countries where indicators are not doctored, good economic statistical indicators might very easily be misleading. Without imagining this time, good economic indicators in themselves do not guarantee that citizens benefit from them.
Complete Letter...
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