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JCTR BASIC NEEDS BASKET REVEALS CROSS TOWN COST VARIATIONS WITH MAIZE AND DRY FISH MAKING THE DIFFERENCE May 2006 The Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) has revealed that the cost of food in Kabwe, Ndola and Luanshya has shown some decline while that of Livingstone and Lusaka has increased. This observation is according to the JCTR Basic Needs Basket information for the month of May which has also shown the cost of fish as the main explanation for the mixed picture in the overall cost of food across these towns. In Lusaka and Livingstone dry fish has recorded some significant increases to the extent of impacting on the overall cost of food. In Kabwe, Ndola and Luanshya the cost of fish has either reduced, increased slightly, or remained the same. In Luanshya the marginal increase in the cost of fish is off-set by the decrease in mealie meal price while for Lusaka and Livingstone this off-set did not occur because of the huge rise in the price of fish. For Lusaka, fish (dried bream) increased by K9,000 per Kg and in Livingstone it went up by K16,000 for the same quantity, while breakfast mealie meal reduced by K1,600 per 25 Kg bag in Lusaka and K2,800 in Livingstone. Muweme Muweme who coordinates the Social Conditions Research Project of the JCTR says, “It appears the overall cost of food has been influenced by the price of fish and maize in determining its reduction or increase.” However, it is important to note that Livingstone, Lusaka, Kabwe, Ndola, and Luanshya experienced increases in the price of tomatoes and onion while the price of green vegetables recorded some reduction. The overall cost of food in Livingstone for the month of May was recorded at K525,900 compared to K507,200 in April, while in Kabwe it was K449,660 compared to K459,350 in April. In Ndola it was K502,000 in May compared to K530,250 in April, while in Luanshya it was K477,510 in May and K508,650 in April. Lusaka, whose experience is similar to Livingstone, recorded the overall cost of food at K511,550 representing an increase of K12,750 over the April figure of K498,800. But what kind of conclusions can be drawn from this situation as revealed by the Basic Needs Basket snapshot? First, the Basic Needs Basket illuminates the seasonal price changes and the significant influence of maize in determining the overall cost of food. For a long time the Basic Needs Basket has revealed seasonal fluctuations in food prices, with food price reduction, following a good harvest and increases thereafter. This scenario explains to a larger extent the current reduction in the price of mealie meal which can be attributed to significant supplies of the commodity. The second conclusion to make is the significant position agriculture has in influencing people’s welfare, including maintaining low food inflation. But what is causing anxiety in the current situation of a good harvest is the marketing of the produce, particularly maize. Certainly, reports that some small-scale farmers are selling maize even for much less than what government has recommended as floor price has lots of implications. For example, in some parts of Mufumbwe in North Western Province, not only are small-scale farmers selling their maize at very low prices, but are also trading it with small quantities of fish in an effort to improve their diet. According to Muweme, this situation cited above is undermining agriculture in Zambia. First, as much as it is leading to lower cost of mealie meal for the urban population, it is reducing the capacity of the small-scale farmers to realise adequate resources in order to meet their various household needs. Second, it is negatively affecting diversification of production towards more market oriented crops because small-scale farmers are not accumulating adequate resources to facilitate that diversification. It is therefore the view of the JCTR that Zambia must strive to find the right balance between the cost of food on one hand and the immediate needs of the small-scale farmers and the future of agriculture in general on the other. A solution that will benefit both the producers and consumers will not only lead to sustainable agriculture, but will also improve the welfare of the people in rural and urban areas.
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