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JCTR Asks: Will the Needs of the Zambian People Be Met As the development blue print for Zambia was being discussed last week by people from various sectors of the Zambian society, the Basic Needs Basket of the month in which this was happening was costing K1, 376,300, with food costing K469,500 for Lusaka and in similar ranges in other towns. The cost of basic needs presents to the country an extremely serious challenge upon which all efforts must be concentrated. Whether people can access their basic needs or not has serious implications for individual and family well-being and for the future development of the country This focus on basic needs sets the context of challenges of what must be fulfilled by this important plan, the Fifth National development Plan (FNDP). So the JCTR is asking if the FNDP is going to fulfil the needs of Zambian people, especially those at the lower end of the social ladder. Will ordinary Zambians afford to meet basic needs for decent survival after the Plan has run its course? Overall, this Plan does set sufficient ground for realisation of the needs of the Zambian people, with generally well worked out goals, strategies, objectives, indicators, budgets, etc. Moreover, it must be realised that such a “telescopic view” to a future development path of Zambia is highly commendable. For example, looking at the social sector, particularly education, we generally see well-defined and ambitious programmes and objectives, including indicators and targets (pupil teacher ratios, equity across the districts, etc.). But there are questions around the sufficiency of funds to meet the hiring of teachers and improving their conditions, including equity initiatives such as the strategy to increase bursaries -- something mentioned only at basic level. The 2007 Budget must bear an FNDP stamp. “The same could be said about the programmes and objectives of health, which are not only thorough but also present increases in the budget of about 154% from 2006 to 2010,” says Chris Petrauskis of the JCTR Social Conditions Research Project, who participated in the just-ended FNDP deliberations. An important thing to note about the social sectors compared to other sectors is the fact that to some extent both education and health budgets were worked out based on real needs. The JCTR considers this to be highly desirable in order to meet Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of universal education for all, improved quality of health delivery, etc. But we point to the big question concerning donor dependency and whether or not there will be steady inflows of resources to avoid disruption of programme implementation. Again, the 2007 Budget will begin to tell the story. When it comes to the section on labour, the programmes and objectives of the FNDP are less ambitious and comprehensive compared to those in the National Employment Policy released in 2005. Funding increases to the Ministry of Labour over the lifespan of the Plan are not that significant when one takes into account inflation. According to Petrauskis, this obviously has serious implications on the capacity of the Ministry of Labour to promote oversight of elements of employment such as safety standards and to monitor compliance with the recently revised Minimum Wages and Conditions of Employment Act (Cap. 276). In addition, while strategies outlined in the Plan for social protection are thorough and good, there are questions around targeting. For example, how many households and what kind of households will benefit, especially taking into account a budget which shows a modest increase of 22% over the period of the FNDP implementation? It appears resources will primarily go towards low-capacity households as opposed to incapacitated households. But even more disappointing is the decrease from K12.6 Billion in 2006 to K12 Billion in 2010 in allocations to welfare support. JCTR considers that a primary question for evaluation of the FNDP must remain: what will this Plan mean for the people, especially for the poor?
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